We are over a week into the first wave of free agency and all the moves have had some significant ripple effects in dynasty fantasy football leagues. I asked Chad Parsons to join me again to breakdown the major story lines in our latest dynasty roundtable discussion.
Here are the questions this month:
What player is the biggest beneficiary of Peyton Manning signing in Denver?
Chad Parsons – The obvious answer is probably Demaryius Thomas in the dynasty community, but I already had Thomas much higher than most in their rankings. I think the answer is Eric Decker.
Decker is a great route runner who needs a quarterback with pinpoint accuracy and ability to throw to a spot, something Tim Tebow did not do much in 2011. Manning and Eric could be a match made in heaven. In addition, many times with elite quarterbacks, the No. 2 and 3 receivers are the biggest benefactors in terms of production. Thomas was already in-line to see more coverage in 2012 with his late-season breakout. Decker will be the biggest mover in my dynasty rankings update with the Peyton Manning signing.
Bryan Fontaine – Great call with Eric Decker. Although it is the most obvious answer, Demaryius Thomas is easily the biggest beneficiary of Peyton Manning joining the Broncos. We both ranked Thomas high in the first release of our 2012 dynasty rankings, and that assumed that Tim Tebow was going to be under center for at least this season. The interesting thing will be how Manning utilizes his new starting receivers.
Thomas and Decker both check in at 6’3” while Manning’s two primary receivers in Indianapolis (Harrison and Wayne) were both a modest 6’0”. It is hard to argue that Thomas would not have already been a top-20 wide receiver with Tebow, but with full health and a full season of Manning, he could approach the top ten.
The secondary and complementary receivers in Denver are in flux because of who could still be added to the roster in free agency and the draft. Unless the Broncos do something drastic, like sign Mike Wallace as a RFA, Thomas is in line for roughly 25-30% of the targets from Manning. According to Mike Clay’s first run of 2012 projections, that could equate to a season of 94 receptions, 1238 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns – good for sixth overall among wide receivers.
The big question mark with Thomas is his injury history; he has missed 11 games the last two seasons. He bounced back strong from his Achilles injury and was eased back into action in 2011. Thomas’ dynasty value just sharply increased. I would not pay top dollar to acquire him in a deal based on this news, but if I already had him on my roster, I would plan to make him a centerpiece to my dynasty squad for the years to come.
What is next for Tim Tebow?
Parsons – With Peyton Manning in town, the Broncos are expected to shop Tebow immediately on the trade market. I think Tebow will end up as an intriguing backup on a quarterback-needy team like Jacksonville, Miami, or even Cleveland. Long-term, I still like Tebow in fantasy terms. He has succeeded as a viable QB1 for fantasy teams, which is something most quarterbacks never achieve. I will give Tebow another couple of years to develop as a passer and make his way into a starter's role.
Fontaine – As of the time we write this, Tebow is due to be traded soon. While we do not know where his next home will be, I have not given up on him as a viable fantasy option. Peyton Manning is good enough to supplant most starting quarterbacks in the league save a few other elite players – so it is not indicative that Tebow’s career is over just because he is not a future Hall of Famer like Manning.
There are multiple landing spots that make sense for Tebow, but they will be in a backup capacity only. Keeping Tebow on your dynasty team will require patience. With limited playing time, Tebow has amassed 13 career rushing touchdowns and sports a 19-to-9 touchdown to interception ratio. In his 500 career drop backs, he has scrambled 10% of the time (among the league leaders), but has also taken a sack 10% of the time. I am an admitted Tebow fan, so I am more likely willing to throw a trade offer to acquire him for a late rookie draft pick while most are ready to give up on him all together. In a quarterback-starved league, we will see Tebow start again in the near future for another team.
With the Mike Tolbert signing, what do you make of the situation in Carolina?
Parsons – Tolbert in Carolina does not affect the running back situation too much. The market was weak and Carolina had two running backs that are dinged up from time-to-time. The Panthers want to run, run, and run some more, so the more viable running backs the better. I think Tolbert spends some time at fullback, H-back, and even a little short-yardage back in 2012. He could also be a hedge for Jonathan Stewart's potential departure. I see Tolbert with far less value in Carolina with two talented runners ahead of him, but the impact on Stewart and Williams is minimal in my opinion in dynasty.
Fontaine – I am still shocked by this signing. It was more likely that Tolbert would sign with a team that could give him feature back carries in a deflated free agent running back market. Maybe he knows something we do not regarding the contract status of Jonathan Stewart. The trade rumors are rampant with Stewart’s name, but if the dust clears and all three backs are on the roster in Week 1, it could impede everyone’s short-term value.
On the surface, Tolbert paced the three running backs in fantasy points scored last season, but lagged behind both Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in yards after contact per attempt (2.4, 3.0/2.9). Tolbert was used heavily as a receiver in San Diego, but Stewart’s target rate was right on par him. Dynasty owners are likely to read too much into this signing. I would use it as an opportunity to acquire Stewart on a discount given the uncertainty – at the end of the day he is one of the most talented running backs in the league.
Who is the best remaining free agent running back that can make a dynasty impact?
Parsons – I would put my money on BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Michael Bush and Cedric Benson have more name value in fantasy circles, but Green-Ellis is underrated. He more than doubled Cedric Benson's +5.6 rush rating and dwarfed Michael Bush's +2.0 with his +11.5 showing in 2011. Green-Ellis also had a higher missed tackle rating than either Bush or Benson. Green-Ellis does not everything well and will not do anything to lose his share of a future team's workload.
Fontaine – The pickings are rather slim at this point, but I think you highlighted the three backs we should monitor – Green-Ellis, Bush and Benson. I am not particularly fond of any of them with a long-term viewpoint. Benson is wearing down, Green-Ellis is a consistent player, and Bush has been a dynasty darling since entering the NFL.
Age-wise each player is a candidate to be replaced by a younger option in a deep rookie running back class (Benson 29, Green-Ellis 27, and Bush 28). If I had to make a stand on any of these backs, I would side with the player mentioned here that signs with Cincinnati – they have the only opening for a feature back in the league.
What is Peyton Hillis’ impact in Kansas City?
Parsons – The move hurts Hillis' dynasty value a little simply because the possibility was there for him to be the lead back in Cleveland going forward. Now, Hillis plays the Thomas Jones role, but with more receiving impact. Jamaal Charles' value hinges more on his recovery from ACL surgery, not Peyton Hillis stealing touches in my opinion.
Charles will perform best with 15-20 touches a game, leaving plenty of work for Hillis to carve a role as a spot-play for fantasy teams. Hillis is a mandatory handcuff for Charles with his ability to carry the full load, perform at the goal line, and catch 4-5 passes a game if Charles misses time.
Fontaine – I actually like this signing a lot. I agree that staying in Cleveland would have allowed Hillis to remain a feature back; however, his one-year prove in contract will allow him to work in tandem with Jamaal Charles to create a dynamic running back committee. Charles will be returning from ACL surgery this year and we already know he performs best on a carry and snap count to stay fresh.
Charles will optimistically see 300 combined touches on offense, leaving Hillis to fill the Thomas Jones role on picking up the scraps and doing the dirty work. Working in Hillis’ favor is that he is not a volume runner for being a hybrid running back – he is equally effective in the passing game. I would still rank Charles in my top-10, but Hillis would still be just outside my top-40 running backs and a must-own handcuff for a Charles owner.
What is the impact of Matt Flynn signing in Seattle?
Parsons – For Sidney Rice owners, Flynn is a good thing. Tarvaris Jackson made some positive plays in 2011, but his inconsistency was maddening to watch. Flynn may not be a sexy option at quarterback, but will run the system, make the right reads, and a deliver a more accurate ball than Jackson.
Seattle is a run-based offense, so Flynn's upside in fantasy terms will be limited. I would use his signing to leverage a trade in dynasty to upgrade at any other position. Flynn is a viable QB2, but unlikely to offer QB1 potential in the future. I am sure there are dynasty owners with the combination of a need at quarterback and a belief that Flynn has a higher upside than in reality that makes for a good sell high proposition right now.
Fontaine – This is another free agent move that I can applaud. Matt Flynn only has two career starts (at NE, vs. DET), but he has shown enough that he deserves to start in the NFL. Although Flynn’s career numbers are a bit inflated by the six touchdowns against Detroit – he is right at or above the league average for quarterbacks in several other categories including completion percentage, scramble rate and average depth of target.
First, Flynn needs to beat out Tarvaris Jackson in an open competition before he has any fantasy relevance going forward. Seattle’s commitment to the ground game could put a cap on Flynn’s production. However, he does have some excellent weapons to work with including Sidney Rice, Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate. Like Chad, I may also sell high if I was looking to upgrade at another position – but I have seen enough to hold on to Flynn and see if he develops into Matt Hasselbeck 2.0.
What does the future hold for Mike Williams (TB) with the Vincent Jackson signing?
Parsons – I was one of the biggest opponents to Mike Williams continuing his rookie season success all offseason in 2011. Vincent Jackson's signing just further cements my position. Mike Williams' drop rate, high touchdown rate, and high production on a run-based team in 2010 was staggering to me. I expected all those things to change in 2011 even without the dysfunction that took over Tampa Bay this year.
As a talent, I like Arrelious Benn more coming into the NFL. That may come to fruition in the next year or two with Vincent Jackson cemented as the No. 1 receiver in Tampa Bay. How will Williams respond? Unless a Williams owner can get low-WR2 value in a trade, I would be holding him right now in dynasty leagues.
Fontaine – The future for Williams is not as bright as it was just an offseason ago. With Vincent Jackson signing his free agent contact, Williams drops from a low-end WR2 to a low-end WR3 or worse in 120team leagues. Williams was miscast as the LWR last season, a role that Jackson can succeed at this season as more of a downfield threat.
If Williams does slide over to the Z wide receiver spot, he faces direct competition from his third-year teammate Arrelious Benn to work the intermediate routes. Comparing Williams to Michael Clayton is a bit harsh at this point. I would also be looking to hold Williams in dynasty leagues so that he can rehabilitate his fantasy value before I attempted to trade him away.
Can Laurent Robinson flourish as the top wide receiver in Jacksonville?
Parsons – Even before his destination was known this offseason, Robinson was a huge sell for me in dynasty. Here is a receiver that finally had a span of health in 2011 in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL. He saw little coverage with Austin, Bryant, and Witten around him, as well as having a great chemistry with Tony Romo.
In addition to betting on Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, or potentially Tim Tebow, a Robinson owner needs to trust him to beat No. 1 cornerbacks in coverage with no significant weapons around him in the passing game on one of the worst passing teams in recent NFL memory while staying healthy. That is a laundry list of “ifs” that I will not be betting on in dynasty leagues. He should be a decent option to sell, pointing to his likely increase in targets, but I would take a wide range of players in return for Robinson right now.
In terms of start-up ADP, Santonio Holmes, Jonathan Baldwin, Jared Cook, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Sam Bradford are just a few of the players close to Robinson that I would accept in a trade right now.
Fontaine – The simple answer is no.
I agree that Laurent Robinson is the poster child for taking advantage of opportunities created by his teammates. In fact, a closer look at the numbers show us that he played more snaps the year before in St. Louis than he did in Dallas last year. His touchdown totals would have been hard to repeat in Dallas – eight of his 11 touchdowns came in the redzone, and seven of those eight touchdowns were from inside 10 yards. His three touchdowns outside the redzone were from 70, 58 and 34 yards away – including 52 yards after catch combined.
Stepping down from Tony Romo to Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne is significant and Mike Thomas and Marcedes Lewis will not draw cover like his Dallas teammates did last year. Robinson is a definite sell high candidate.
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