The return to a regular (read: not lockout-shortened) offseason will bring a return of the free agent rumor mill. The sexy stories will follow the possible destinations of the free agent players, but for dynasty players with the ability to make speculative pickups, the players left behind can be the bigger story. In this post, I will cover the running backs that could emerge if the players in front of them sign with new teams. I will have a follow-up that discusses receivers.
To see a full list of impending free agents, check out Mike Clay’s article.
Incumbent: Matt Forte
Backup: Kahlil Bell
For much of the regular season, Matt Forte was the impending free agent that received the press. His fight is a philosophical one and has little to do with his ability as a player. Forte is a great player. His 17.8 overall rating is still second for the season despite missing the last three weeks and most of week 13, when he was injured, and if either Arian Foster or Maurice Jones-Drew passes him in week 17, they will do so in around 100 extra snaps or more. However, teams must decide whether any running back is worth a financial commitment. Chris Johnson is a constant reminder of that risk, and if even Adrian Peterson can by felled by a knee injury, will the Bears be willing to pay Forte?
Should the Bears decide to let Forte walk, they might already have his replacement in Kahlil Bell, the darling of this year’s fantasy playoffs. Like Forte, Bell has been a positive contributor as both a runner (1.9) and a receiver (1.1), and Bell is a much better blocker (1.2 to -1.5 for Forte), an asset behind a bad offensive line. Bell is only a year younger than Forte, but he does not have the same mileage, and he is a restricted free agent and will be much cheaper than Forte. The Bears worked Forte as if his durability was not a concern, which was good for fantasy owners if not his NFL career. If Bell inherited Forte’s workload, it would not matter that he is not the same player. He is still good, and he would continue to produce because of volume.
Incumbent: Michael Bush
Backup: Taiwan Jones
Michael Bush could become the fantasy story of the offseason. For fantasy, Bush is a triple threat. He is an effective rusher (1.9), receiver (4.6), and goal-line back. He rates as positive in every PFF category (8.2 overall), and he has proven to be the antithesis of Darren McFadden in terms of health. I expect Oakland will make the effort to resign him, but will Bush want to return to a backfield that has him play second fiddle to McFadden when both are healthy? Bush could be a workhorse and fantasy superstar in the right situation. He may chose to leave, whatever the Raiders decide to offer him.
Taiwan Jones does not have much of a track record (1.4 overall in 33 snaps), but should Bush leave Oakland, he would become the second back behind McFadden. That is a job with a lot of fantasy potential. He is close to 50 pounds lighter than Bush, so assuming that Jones would seamlessly transition into his role is dangerous, but I feel safe in assuming that the Raiders will want to limit McFadden’s touches. He would be would be worth mid-to-late-round consideration in a typical league, so if you can acquire him at less of a cost now, he is worth a pickup.
Incumbent: Peyton Hillis
Backup: Montario Hardesty
2011 was a year to forget for Peyton Hillis, but despite a series of injuries that limited him to 423 snaps through 16 weeks, Hillis has been a positively-rated player (5.0). The Browns could decide to blow up their team this offseason. After a promising rookie season, Colt McCoy has regressed this year. His -20.0 overall rating is fifth-worst among quarterbacks. But even if the Browns do not bring Hillis back, you should not assume that Montario Hardesty would inherit his job. Hardesty has been a negative contributor as a runner (-3.1), receiver (-2.8), and blocker (-2.8), and he has been healthy less even than Hillis. I think the likelihood is that the Browns do not yet have their future back on their roster.
Incumbent: Cedric Benson
Backup: Bernard Scott
Bernard Scott looked to have a chance to cement his place as the heir to Cedric Benson when Benson was suspended in week 8. And even though Scott played well in that game (1.1 overall in week 8), he has not seen a dramatic increase in snaps in the weeks since or shown that he is a better back than Benson. Scott rates slightly negative overall (-1.2) and is a poor blocker (-2.1) whereas Benson is a good one (2.2). The Bengals may retain Benson or draft or sign a new back to complete their young core. I doubt Scott will be that mix.
Incumbent: Arian Foster
Backup: Ben Tate
Houston’s offensive line is so good that, for a while, I did not believe Foster was as good a player as his statistics would suggest. The early-season numbers of Ben Tate reinforced those beliefs. But then Foster returned and continued to produce gaudy stats (17.1 overall), and I have settled into the opinion that they are both good players. This situation screams Carolina Panthers to me. They had a young and cheap replacement option in Jonathan Stewart but decided to resign DeAngelo Williams and play them together, and that has worked well. Like Stewart, Tate runs violently, and that could encourage his coaches to continue to limit his touches. Chances are that another Cam Newton will not show up in Texas to destroy their fantasy value, so Foster and Tate will continue to produce. They will also continue to be a tandem since Foster is restricted and will likely not be going anywhere.
Incumbent: BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Backup: Stevan Ridley
His usage pattern suggests that this is the end of the line for BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and the next running back Belichick pays will be the first. The Patriots have too many viable candidates, in-house, to keep him, but that is a blessing and a curse for fantasy players. I cannot recommend with any confidence a specific back to keep as Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, and Danny Woodhead will likely share snaps and prevent one another from excelling statistically. My best guess is that Woodhead has already found his niche, and his workload will be similar next season. If either Ridley or Vereen receives exclusive goal-line duties, they could become a viable fantasy option the same as Green-Ellis has been. Ridley had more snaps and a better grade (2.4 overall) this season, so he would be the one if you had to pick.
Incumbent: LaDainian Tomlinson
Backup: Joe McKnight
It is easy to forget that LaDainian Tomlinson had 271 total touches in 2010. Some of that work went to Shonn Greene this season, but Greene continues to be a negative-rated receiver (-2.3). It is hard to imagine his role increasing further. Joe McKnight could be the one to inherit the third-down role from Tomlinson in 2012. He rated positive as a receiver (2.4) in limited (108) snaps and was passable as a blocker. His touches are a surer thing than either Stevan Ridley or Shane Vereen on the Patriots, but his upside is also more limited. He is a speculative keeper add in only the deepest of leagues.
© 2025 PFF - all rights reserved.