Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. As the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to single-game opportunities.
As such, below is the only betting guide needed to unearth expected value for each Monday night contest throughout the 2021 NFL regular season.
For Week 2, we turn to a contest between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers.
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GAME LINES
Aaron Rodgers’ Week 1 PFF grade was the fifth-worst mark of his NFL career. It was an abysmal performance in practically every way for the reigning MVP.
That being said, Rodgers and the Packers have a great opportunity to bounce back versus the Lions in primetime this week. Green Bay is 11.5-point favorites, and given the large discrepancy in both talent and experience between these two NFC North rivals, the team should be able to easily handle the Lions and cover this spread.
Two Green Bay-favored key matchups to watch are Rodgers and his weapons versus the Lions' secondary and Jared Goff against pressure from Za'Darius Smith.
The obvious biggest mismatch in this game is the Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams connection versus the Lions’ poor secondary.
In Week 1, Detroit's defense allowed the 49ers to drop 41 points, and Jimmy Garoppolo recorded a 73.2 passing grade. After finishing dead last in the NFL in team coverage grade in 2020, the Lions finished with a 47.4 coverage grade in Week 1, 27th in the NFL. And individually, Dan Campbell’s squad just does not have the talent to guard Adams, 2020’s highest-graded wide receiver.
On the other side of the ball, Goff’s last few seasons in Los Angeles were marked by an inability to perform well when pressured. Since 2018, his 43.3 passing grade under pressure ranks 30th in the NFL (min. 100 snaps). Facing Smith (86.0 pass-rush grade in 2020) could prove to be an issue for the signal-caller and this Lions offense — although a strong Week 1 showing from rookie left tackle Penei Sewell (75.6 offensive grade) should provide hope for this above-average offensive line.
PFF Greenline gives the under a 53.5% chance to cover, and even given regression back to the mean for Rodgers and this Packers offense, the lack of weapons in Detroit and a poor showing by Green Bay in Week 1 make UNDER 48 the play.
PICKS: Packers -11.5 and UNDER 48.5
PLAYER PROPS
One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications are helpful for evaluating betting opportunities.
Props are priced for a player's median stat projection in a simple over-or-under two-sided market. For historical context, we saw 53% of player props hit the under, regardless of the category, during the 2020 season.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for Monday Night Football.
WR Davante Adams OVER 7.5 receptions (+113)
Coming off a subpar performance of five receptions for 56 yards against Marshon Lattimore and the New Orleans Saints‘ secondary in Week 1, Adams has a significant matchup upgrade this week against the Lions.
According to PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart, Adams has the single best overall and individual matchup of any wide receiver this week. The Lions are projected to rotate their corners against him, but after they allowed 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel to run wild for 189 yards on nine receptions in Week 1, Adams should be salivating to face off against AJ Parker (66.3 coverage grade in Week 1) and Amani Oruwariye (38.1), among others.
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