Late-week betting action isn’t the best approach if long-term profitability is the goal. Game spreads and totals become increasingly sharp moving closer to kickoff, which is why betting game lines early in the week is the best approach.
If betting early in the week isn’t an option, then targeting other markets where lines aren’t stale is key. Beating these markets takes a different approach than those focused solely on the game lines. We can take cues from bookmakers pricing the entire portfolio of offerings on a particular matchup. They arrive at the most likely path the game will travel and then use market dynamics to sharpen the number. In some way, game lines feed derivatives, player props and most other offerings under that matchup umbrella.
We can start by seeing if there are any game lines we disagree with and utilize a couple of different approaches if so.
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Mispriced scenarios should have even worse mispricing further downstream as errors compound. If the game line is only subtly off, it's smart to find where its errors are the most drastic.
Week 11 didn’t treat us too kindly, as the Miami Dolphins‘ missed field goal at the end of the first half swung what would have been a positive week into an 0-3 betting record. This article's plays move to 9-16 on the season, but the plus-price targets continue to provide money, as we are up +2.19 units this season.
Using the approaches above, let's find the best last-minute NFL bets ahead of Week 12.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Philadelphia continues to keep its playoff hopes alive with two impressive offensive outputs in their last two games. With the New Orleans Saints’ loss on Thanksgiving in addition to the NFC's current sixth and seven seeds facing off this week, Philadelphia could slide into a playoff spot with a win on Sunday.
The betting market has reacted kindly to their outlook this week, adding the hook to the field goal spread. Most of the cash and ticket percentages on both the spread and moneyline have gone in Philadelphia's direction. If you missed out on the early-week game spread, targeting the Eagles' first-half spread, which sits at -2.5, is the best alternate approach.
New York simply doesn’t have the offensive line ability to deal with Philadelphia’s front seven. The Giants rank dead-last in PFF’s opponent-adjusted pass-blocking grade while the Eagles boast the fifth-best pass rush in the NFL. That matchup alone should decide this outcome, as New York should struggle to score points in this matchup. Parlaying the under 22.5 points in the first half with the first-half spread offers a +257 payout at Caesar’s sportsbook.
Pick: Eagles -2.5 First Half and Under 22.5 First Half Points (+257 Caesars)
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