While we’re officially in the dog days of summer, with four months until a 2021 regular season that is only four months long itself, it’s never too early to start betting NFL football again.
Here, we give you our favorite bets of 2021’s Week 1 slate, which has absolutely not protected itself against basic Wong teasers and has left some meat on the bone for regular straight bets, as well.
While these should be enough to whet your appetite for a few days, circle back to PFF.com to view our win totals tracker to see where our simulation engine has each team pegged post-schedule release — and pre-schedule release — versus the league’s betting markets.
All lines are available on DraftKings Sportsbook. Enjoy!
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Teaser Legs We Love:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-0.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) at Indianapolis Colts
- Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team (+7.5)
To be completely honest, I would bet the Bucs at any number below 7 because of the simple fact that they have the best continuity and the Cowboys have very little, given Dak Prescott’s gruesome leg injury that forced him to miss 75% of last season.
Tom Brady finished last season with a PFF grade that ranked second overall behind only Aaron Rodgers, and he was the season's most valuable player including the playoffs, according to PFF WAR. The Cowboys defense isn’t going to stop a healthy Bucs offense, which means Dak & Co. will need to show up big.
While we are very bullish on Dak after how well he played to start the season (his grade would have ranked eighth among QBs in 2020), he will be facing a Todd Bowles defense that will test how much confidence he has in his reconstructed leg. The Bucs blitzed at the third-highest rate in the NFL last season (42.1%) and ranked fourth in expected points allowed per play (the best measure of defensive efficiency).
The Seahawks played 11 games that were decided by one score or less, tied with the Houston Texans for the second-most in the NFL. Unlike the Texans, the Hawks won eight of those games, the most in the NFL and two more than the Indianapolis Colts, who played seven such games last season. The Seahawks have the better quarterback getting 8.5 points — we’ll ride with Russell Wilson and the Hawks over Carson Wentz and the Colts.
The Chargers, much like the Seahawks, don’t like to play normal games, either. As a result, they led the league with 12 games decided by one score last season. Meanwhile, the Football Team gets an upgrade at quarterback with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has earned a 75.0-plus PFF grade in each of the last three seasons. Washington’s defense ranked third in limiting offensive efficiency last season and will have a chance to see if Justin Herbert’s 99.4 passer rating under pressure (league average is 67.0) will come back to earth as math would predict.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-6)
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