The 2012 Sunday Night Football schedule opens with two teams carrying genuine Super Bowl aspirations. The Pittsburgh Steelers are once again expected to battle back-and-forth with the Baltimore Ravens, and the upstart Cincinnati Bengals, for the AFC North crown. They couldn’t do better than a Wild Card spot last season, which lead to a first-round exit in the same stadium they visit this week.
The Denver Broncos made the NFL’s biggest splash in free agency, replacing quarterback–and ever-polarizing figure–Tim Tebow with future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning. That’s got fans in Denver thinking Super Bowl and, if Manning is the same player we saw before his injury, so they should.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the three key matchups to watch for in this season opener.
Steelers Offensive Line vs. Broncos Pass Rush
Heading into 2012, the main concern on the Pittsburgh roster is once again the offensive line. Using early draft picks in an attempt to fill two positions hasn’t worked out as planned, with right guard David Decastro scheduled to miss most, if not all, of this season. Second-round draft pick Mike Adams was expected to start at left tackle, however his performance in the preseason caused enough concern for the Steelers to bring Max Starks back again. That adds a bit of stability to the line and, while his form dipped as the season wore on, Starks showed that he can be competent enough to be trusted with protecting Ben Roethlisberger’s blind side. At the opposite end of the line, second-year right tackle Marcus Gilbert was our highest-graded Steelers offensive linemen, playing well enough to finish the year as our 16th-rated offensive tackle in pass protection.
That offensive line will be tested right out of the gates as they try to get to grips with Denver’s Von Miller. Simply put, even as a rookie, Miller was one of the premier defensive players in the entire league. He had nine games where he graded higher than +4.1, and finished with a positive grade against the run, as a pass rusher and in coverage. Our Pass Rushing Productivity Signature Stat, which measures pressure on a per-snap basis, had him as the fourth most productive pass rusher among all 4-3 outside linebackers, as he produced 12 sacks, 19 hits, and 29 hurries. Also hoping to put pressure on Roethlisberger, Elvis Dumervil’s raw numbers (12 sacks, seven hits, 28 hurries) jump out at you. However, another glance at our PRP shows that he wasn’t quite as productive as Miller, finishing 2011 23rd among all 4-3 defensive ends.
Steelers Cornerbacks vs. Broncos Wide Receivers
The lasting image of the Steelers' January Wild Card loss in Denver is that of Ike Taylor being beaten by Demaryius Thomas for the game-winning score in overtime. Yet, while not worthy of the early season comparisons to Darrelle Revis, Taylor is still the Steelers' most experienced corner and retains his starting position. Opposite him, Keenan Lewis replaces the departing William Gay in the starting line-up after giving up receptions on 61.2% of passes thrown into his coverage as the team’s third corner last season. That moves 2011 fourth-round draft pick, Cortez Allen up the depth chart as the nickel back. The sample size on Allen’s work in 2011 is limited, he saw just 60 snaps on defense, but of the 11 times he was targeted by opposing quarterbacks, he gave up a reception 81.8% of the time.
The aforementioned Thomas missed the start of last season through injury, but when he got onto the field he was able to put in a few eye-catching performances, not least of which was that playoff victory where he got the better of Taylor to the tune of 204 yards and a touchdown. Including the playoffs, he averaged 20.2 yards per catch so his big play ability can’t be questioned and, with an upgrade at quarterback, you would expect him to build on that this season. Eric Decker is expected to be Manning’s other top target this year and, after scoring eight touchdowns in the first 12 weeks of the 2011 season, it’s easy to see why. The one concern with both players, however, is the combined 16 drops we saw last year. To truly take advantage of having one of the greatest players of all time at quarterback they need to show some improvement there.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Peyton Manning
While there are plenty of games to look forward to in Week 1, this one represents the best matchup between marquee quarterbacks. Never grading lower than seventh at the position since 2009, Roethlisberger continues to impress us here at Pro Football Focus. There was concern after his poor showing in last year’s opening game in Baltimore, but he followed that up with just three more negatively-graded games the rest of the year. Under pressure–something he should expect against Denver–he completed 53.8% of his passes with six touchdowns and three interceptions, making the battle between the offensive line and pass rushers even more important.
Manning’s health has been a big story throughout the league for well over a year now. After missing all of last season, the question with him is whether or not he can get back to the form that saw him rank fifth or higher at the position between 2008 and 2010. In 2010, the last time we saw him on the field, Manning completed 66.3% of his passes while throwing for 33 touchdowns. Even under pressure he still delivered, with a grade of +7.6 on plays under pressure. If he is back to his best, or even close to it, it makes Denver a Super Bowl contender. Either way, his matchup with Roethlisberger makes for an interesting battle to open the season.
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