Neither the New Orleans Saints or the Carolina Panthers started the 2012 season the way they would have hoped, or expected. Both teams fell victim to upset losses, with the Saints in particular stumbling against an opponent that many would have expected them to brush aside, no matter how tumultuous their offseason. Despite an electric atmosphere in the Super Dome, the Saints' offense started sluggishly (though some familiar faces eventually found their feet) and the defense did not take the expected strides forward in Week 1. Meanwhile in Tampa Bay, the Panthers were stifled on the ground by a ferocious Buccaneer run defense and couldn’t muster enough points to notch a divisional win.
As a result, Aaron Kromer will get a second chance to grab his first victory as the Saints' interim head coach, this time against a team that New Orleans swept last season. The Saints offense fired in both those games, so the onus will be on Cam Newton and the Panthers' offense to raise their game this week and match the output of New Orleans.
Let’s look at three matchups to watch on Sunday, as these two teams fight to avoid a 0-2 start that will raise questions about their playoff credentials.
Run the Ball
The Panthers possess what is arguably the NFL’s most talented group of runners in Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Tolbert, and Cam Newton. It was therefore one of the most surprising outcomes of Week 1 that their running game was so comprehensively shut down by Tampa Bay, to the extent that Carolina were forced to go away from the ground attack. Even without the injured Stewart (PFF's ‘Mr. Elusive'), and despite the Bucs' performance, it was stunning to see the Panthers go so quickly away from their bread and butter, as they ran the ball on only 11 occasions (with two more scrambles). Expect that number to increase this week if the Panthers are to get back on track against a team they ran the ball on efficiently last season. In two meetings last season the Panthers gained 7.4 yards per carry on 40 designed runs against New Orleans, losing yardage on only one of those carries.
However, if Week 1 is anything to go by the Saints will provide a far sterner test in run defense than last season. Led by Cameron Jordan, who recorded a ridiculous nine stops for a grade of +6.8 in run defense against Washington, the New Orleans defense looks to be taking a step forward against the run in 2012. One of the keys for the Panthers will be how rookie Amini Silatolu copes with blocking one of the most dominant run defenders in the entire league, Brodrick Bunkley. After impressing in preseason, Silatolu didn’t get the chance to really show his mettle against the Bucs, but he won’t face a sterner examination of his ability as a run blocker this season than this Sunday in his home debut.
Can the Saints defend the pass?
If there is one thing that you cannot afford in your secondary it's missed tackles, and that is the cardinal sin the Saints committed in their defeat to Washington. Six tackles were missed by Saints defenders, and the mistakes contributed to them allowing nearly 200 yards after the catch to Redskin defenders. As much credit as Robert Griffin III gets for his NFL debut, the Saints’ defense more than played their part in how the Redskins were able to put together those impressive numbers. There was no pressure from the defensive line–Griffin was only pressured on eight dropbacks–and once again the Saints failed to cover the middle of the field. Both of these traits have been carried over from last season and will need to be quickly remedied. Newton didn’t exploit these areas against the Saints last season, but when the likes of Steve Smith and Greg Olsen can get matched up against the likes of Malcolm Jenkins (-2.4) and Roman Harper (-3.3) over the middle of the field, the QB should be in for a big day.
Getting the Offense Back on Track
Although Drew Brees (+1.7) graded positively in Week 1, his performance was not what we have come to expect from the NFL’s new single-season passing yards record holder. He completed his lowest percentage of passes since 2006, struggled to find any rhythm in the passing game, and failed to get a first down on six different drives. Brees finished with two interceptions, and if not for butter fingers on the Washington defense, that total could easily have been four or five.
How the Saints’ QB handles Carolina’s pass rush will be key; he was pressured on 35.2% of dropbacks against the Redskins, completing only 35.3% of his passes on those plays. Meanwhile, Carolina managed 15 QB disruptions and was able to pressure Josh Freeman on 46.4% of his dropbacks.
Look for our 2011 leader in accuracy percentage under pressure to improve in Week 2 against a pass defense that looked vulnerable, especially on the outside with Chris Gamble (-1.4), Josh Norman, and Charles Godfrey receiving negative grades in coverage. Only nickel cornerback Captain Munnerlyn (+2.6) made significant plays in the secondary, primarily working from the slot position.
It will be interesting to see whether New Orleans can stretch the field in the passing game: while the Panthers allowed Freeman to complete 16 of 21 aimed passes, he didn’t attempt a pass longer than 20 yards. Conversely, Brees threw 11 deep passes against Washington, more than any other quarterback in Week 1. Will Carolina employ the same strategy in pass coverage that they used against Tampa, with safeties Godfrey and Haruki Nakamura each playing deep on over two-thirds of the team’s defensive snaps? Either way, this will be a pivotal matchup to keep an eye on during Sunday’s game.
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