Carolina and Dallas are two of the most disappointing teams in the league thus far. Both came in clamoring about their potential and being Super Bowl contenders, but instead both enter Week 7 with sub .500 records and are in desperate need of a win.
It has been a crazy week in Dallas after a last-minute clock management debacle against the Ravens left the them at 2-3 and in last place in the NFC East. Whether you feel quarterback Tony Romo or head coach Jason Garrett is to blame for last week’s mishap doesn’t really matter, the bottom line is the Cowboys are not where they expected to be. Their next opportunity to turn things around comes this week in Carolina against a Panthers team that is off to an even more disheartening start.
Fresh off their bye week, Carolina will look to turn around a season that they had super aspirations for. Instead of marching toward a playoff berth, they have struggled to a 1-4 start and are already five wins behind the first place Falcons. The potential is there, as we saw in a Week 4 game in Atlanta, where they had the unbeaten Falcons defeated until a last-minute collapse of their own. Did the bye week help them prepare for a home game against the Cowboys? Perhaps, if they spent it focusing on these key matchups.
Tony Romo vs. Panthers Pass D
Romo (+9.5) is possibly the most scrutinized player in the NFL, and he may never have a better opportunity to quiet his critics than he does this week — Carolina brings with them the second-worst cumulative pass coverage grade in the NFL. It has been the same old story for Romo, high completion percentage, makes plays with his legs, but this year has more interceptions than touchdowns, though his wide receivers deserve some of that blame. Something that's clearly lacking for Romo this season is the deep throw, he is just 4 of 20 on passes that travel more than 20 yards in the air.
The task of stopping Romo will fall mainly Carolina's starting cornerbacks, Chris Gamble and Josh Norman. Gamble is first in the league in Coverage Snaps Per Reception (20.5), and has been in coverage for 164 snaps but allowed only eight catches. Norman ranks 48th on that same list, so he is obviously getting the bulk of the attention from opposing quarterbacks. It won’t get any easier for them this week when they match-up against the Cowboys' talented receivers, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. A boost in coverage for Carolina could come from pass rusher Charles Johnson (+9.4 pass rushing), who is fourth among 4-3 defensive ends in Pass Rushing Productivity — he has tallied 23 total pressures on the quarterback in 147 snaps. If he can apply pressure it would be a huge help because Romo completes just 58.5% of his passes when pressured, opposed to 70.9% when not pressured.
Panthers Ground Attack vs. Cowboys Front Seven
Anytime Cam Newton (-1.1) is on the field, he is a dual threat, at times being more intimidating as a runner than a thrower. This week will be no different, so look for the Panthers to try and run the ball at the Cowboys to limit the time the Dallas offense is on the field. The Panthers' offensive line will be tested, though, and they have to deal with a re-shuffling of personnel following the season-ending injury to starting center, Ryan Kalil. With Kalil out, Carolina will shift Geoff Hangartner from right guard to center, a move that will hopefully ignite Hangartner who has been a liability in the run game, grading out at -7.0 in run blocking thus far. The trickle-down will also move right tackle Byron Bell to right guard and Garry Williams steps in at right tackle.
A lot of the run option plays that the Panthers love take time to develop, so the new look line could be a factor. The Cowboys' front seven will have an opportunity to build on a good start. Linebacker Sean Lee has been a force, especially stopping the run (+8.6 run defense) and he will be counted on to track down Newton when he tucks to run. Outside linebackers DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will have to be disciplined and keep contain or the Panthers' running backs could have a big day.
Backup Dallas Running Backs
A great way for the Cowboys to take some of the pressure off Romo would be to establish a running game. However, with the recent injury to starting running back, DeMarco Murray, that burden will fall on backups, Felix Jones and Phillip Tanner. A one-time starter, Jones will have another opportunity to prove that he is a starting-caliber runner — so far this season he has been decent; on 21 carries he has 105 yards, including 61 after contact.
The big difference between Jones and Murray is that in 75 carries Murray has caused 15 missed tackles, where Jones has forced just two in his 21 attempts. It could be a great week for Jones to have a big game, though, as just like their pass coverage unit, the Panthers' run defense is second-worst in the league and they have yet to find a player who will step up and be their run stopper. Jon Beason and Luke Kuechly were hoping to be that guy, but have not yet taken the role. Beason ranks 31st among inside linebackers in Run Stop Percentage, with just eight stops in 99 snaps. He will need to be much better this week and the rest of the season for Carolina to improve.
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