The Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts meet this Sunday at Soldier Field in a rematch of Super Bowl XLI. The Bears still feature many familiar faces from that game, whereas the Colts have seen a complete overhaul of their franchise in this past year. If the Bears are serious about challenging for a Super Bowl, this is the type of team they must beat.
The Colts are starting rookie quarterback Andrew Luck and he is sure to have every throw compared to former Colts great Peyton Manning. Though they may not have realistic Super Bowl aspirations, a down year in the AFC South could help Indianapolis toward challenging for a .500 finish.
If they want to beat the Bears though, they will have to slow down the once-lethal combination of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Each played their best when together in Denver and it remains to be seen whether they can rekindle that success in Chicago.
The Chuck Pagano era is ready to kickoff for Indianapolis, while Mike Tice takes the reins of Chicago's offense. Who will win, you ask? I think the answer will be determined by how successful each team is in these three areas:
Bears Tackles vs. Colts Outside Linebackers
The aging duo in Indianapolis are matched up against Chicago’s young and unproven tackles. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were once the class of the league as 4-3 defensive ends, but their combined production slowed in 2011. The Colts hope that their down year was a result of fewer pass rushing snaps (182 less in 2011 than in 2010) rather than declining performance due to age.
If the duo has a weakness, it’s their ineffectiveness against the run. Making the switch to line up as 3-4 outside linebackers in new defensive coordinator Greg Manusky's defense could aid the veterans' run defense, but also look for it to benefit backup Jerry Hughes. Hughes seemed out of place as a 4-3 end and he has looked great in the preseason playing a position similar to the one he played at TCU.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears will counter with left tackle J'Marcus Webb and right tackle Gabe Carimi. Carimi showed promise as a rookie before his season ended due to a knee injury. Webb left more to be desired after switching from right tackle to left in his second season posting one of the worst pass block grades in the league (-9.7). The Bears did little to address the offensive line in the offseason and instead pinned their hopes on a scheme change to fix their blocking woes.
This matchup could define the seasons for both teams. If the Colts’ linebackers are unable to get consistent pressure on the young Bears tackles, there may not be much hope for the defense which ranked 30th in PFF's cumulative defense grading in 2011. On the other hand, Chicago needs some signs of improvement from their 31st-ranked offensive line. If the Bears' tackles cannot slow Freeney and Mathis, the chances of developing an elite passing attack in Chicago are slim. I look for this matchup to favor the team that takes an early lead. The Colts linebackers are more talented, but if they fall behind, the Bears should enjoy some success with their running game.
Luck's Debut and Supporting Cast
The first pick’s first game. Some draft analysts have called him the best prospect since Elway; others say the best since Manning. All hype aside, recent history should give Colts fans a reason to be excited. The last two No. 1 picks, Cam Newton and Sam Bradford, increased their respective teams’ win totals in Year 1 by four and six respectively. Based on that, and considering Luck's college performance, one might expect a similar win increase for the Colts in 2012. However, expecting a huge game against the Bears and a rookie season on par with Newton's may be a bit premature.
The main concern for Luck will be his offensive line. Jeff Saturday was the lone bright spot in 2011 and he walked in free agency. The Colts brought in Samson Satele from the Raiders and Winston Justice from the Eagles to help keep Luck away from pressure. Unfortunately, Satele has been below average for his career and had a terrible showing this preseason, and Justice was relegated to backup duty in 2011 after his all-time bad stretch against the Packers in the 2010 playoffs. Look for the Colts to try and provide Luck with extra blocking help throughout the season.
Luck's preseason was solid, but I don't expect him to be a Top 10 quarterback at least until the talent around him improves. Austin Collie is expected to play in this game, but the losses of Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark leave the receiving corps mostly unproven, outside of Reggie Wayne.
Urlacher vs. Colts Receivers
In the Bears’ Tampa 2 defense, there is no position more valuable than the middle linebacker. Poor play from the MLB can bring down the whole system because he is asked to cover the deep middle, the most vulnerable part of the defense. That is why every Bears fan is uneasy about the state of Brian Urlacher‘s left knee. Urlacher has consistently been one of the best linebackers in pass coverage and is the textbook definition of a Tampa 2 MLB. He is 34-years-old and is coming off of a fine season (+8.8), but if his left knee limits his play it will greatly impact the Bears’ defense as a whole.
Urlacher should be tested right away by the Colts’ rookie tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. Fleener and Allen were the first two tight ends taken in the 2012 draft and both were known as receiving TEs in college. Luck has already stated his comfort with his former Stanford teammate, Fleener, but Clemson product Allen will also see many snaps. Another challenge for Urlacher & Co. will be Collie. One of the best slot receivers in the NFL while healthy in 2010 (he led the league with an 84.7 catch rate from the slot that year), multiple concussions cost him a good chunk of that season and he has looked like a different player since.
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