Investigating historical draft success at offensive positions
We've seen that we often tend to overestimate the ability to pick the best players in the draft, and as a consequence, the draft success curve is relatively flat and comes with much uncertainty. In this article, we want to investigate how well teams have fared assessing future NFL careers at different positions playing different facets. Read more…
Fixing the offensive line isn’t going to solve all the Jets’ problems
Sam Darnold falls into this group of highly touted prospects who have been dealt a harsh hand. During his two seasons with the New York Jets, the team's offensive line has been problematic; the pass-catching options around him have been sparse; and the dysfunction that seems to hang in curtains around Adam Gase has made its way to New York. Read more…
Most misleading combine performances of the PFF era
As far as NFL careers go, the following is a list you probably don’t want to be on. When selecting players, we tried to focus on prospects who were somewhat hyped pre-draft — we passed on the workout warriors like Moritz Bohringer, who were never real prospects but so freaky that teams were willing to take flyers on them late. Read more…
2020 NFL Draft: WSU's Anthony Gordon is a quality option at QB
Gordon was fourth in the country in completion percentage while being tied for third in throwaways. Only one FBS quarterback received an “accurate” throw designation on a higher percentage of his dropbacks using our advanced quarterback charting (throw or no throw) than Joe Burrow did a season ago, and that quarterback was Gordon. Read more…
Top trade destinations for Detroit Lions cornerback Darius Slay
Slay had an all-around bad year in 2019, one that was somewhat uncharacteristic for the eighth-year cornerback. In every season from 2014 to 2018, Slay produced a PFF coverage grade above 70.0, ranking among the 20 best corners in the NFL in four of those five seasons. In 2019, he managed a coverage grade of just 56.9, which ranked 92nd in the NFL and was barely better than his 2013 rookie season. It's understandable why Detroit might be hesitant to hand out a fat contract to Slay after that poor season, but we shouldn't let recency bias make us assume that Slay's 2019 is his new norm. Read more…
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